Real Betis vs Porto: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla, Sevilla · updated 2026-10-09
Real Betis host Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Real Betis favourites at 53%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Betis 1.70, Porto 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Isco
Isco, 34 · Real Betis · AMF · Dribbling playmaker
Moneyball Scout picks Isco as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 58, defensive 47).
- Key passes: 4.13 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of attacking midfielders
- Fouls won: 2.75 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of attacking midfielders
- Dispossessed: 0.55 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of attacking midfielders
Porto concede 2.0 goals a match this season, more than the league's average: the space a dribbling playmaker like Isco lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Draws fouls, Press-resistant.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Real Betis | Per match this season | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 0.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.30 |
| 1.64 | xG conceded | – |
| 17.4 | Shots | 5.0 |
| 6.4 | On target | 0.0 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 36.0 |
| 57% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 7.03 | Average rating | 6.60 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Real Betis in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Real Betis
- Álvaro Valles goalkeeper · rating 7.59 · 7 apps
- Marc Bartra defender · rating 7.38 · 5 apps
- Valentín Gómez defender · rating 7.35 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.