Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid · updated 2026-10-09
Real Madrid host Sevilla in La Liga on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 63%, puts the draw at 21% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.19, Sevilla 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator
Moneyball Scout picks Arda Güler as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 88 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 86, defensive 59).
- Key passes: 7.22 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
- Expected assists (est.): 1.04 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
- Big chances created: 2.06 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
Sevilla concede 1.3 goals a match this season (1.43 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a creator like Arda Güler.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Real Madrid | Per match this season | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 7.6 | On target | 4.1 |
| 52.4 | Possession % | 42.0 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 6.9 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 7.10 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé forward · rating 7.96 · 7 apps
- Jude Bellingham midfielder · rating 7.80 · 7 apps
- Arda Güler midfielder · rating 7.71 · 7 apps
Sevilla
- Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega midfielder · rating 7.04 · 7 apps
- Lucien Agoumé midfielder · rating 6.98 · 7 apps
- Juan Iglesias defender · rating 6.94 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.