Roma vs Cagliari Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-13
Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Roma have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Cagliari have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 23% and Cagliari at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Roma 1.88, Cagliari 0.76.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 18.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Roma vs Cagliari: season averages side by side
| Roma | Per match this season | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 2.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 1.78 |
| 18.7 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 6.2 | On target | 3.8 |
| 53.7 | Possession % | 38.7 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 7.10 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Roma
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 81 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 8% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Roma vs Cagliari prediction
Roma should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.88 for Roma and 0.76 for Cagliari - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 46%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Roma 1-0 Cagliari
Roma vs Cagliari betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma to win 63% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.65 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Roma vs Cagliari: questions and answers
When is Roma vs Cagliari?
Roma vs Cagliari is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Roma vs Cagliari played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Roma's home ground.
Who will win Roma vs Cagliari?
Roma are the favourites: Roma 63%, draw 23%, Cagliari 14%. Our prediction is Roma 1-0 Cagliari.
Who is the player to watch in Roma vs Cagliari?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Roma vs Cagliari?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.