Roma vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-09
Roma host Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Roma favourites at 51%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Roma 2.10, Real Madrid 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator
Moneyball Scout picks Arda Güler as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 88 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 86, defensive 59).
- Key passes: 7.22 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
- Expected assists (est.): 1.04 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
- Big chances created: 2.06 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
Roma concede only 0.6 goals a match this season (1.05 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a creator like Arda Güler.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Roma | Per match this season | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 2.6 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 2.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 20.6 | Shots | 18.9 |
| 7.0 | On target | 7.6 |
| 57.6 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 6.9 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 7.16 | Average rating | 7.10 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Roma in its domestic league; Real Madrid in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Roma
- Paulo Dybala forward · rating 8.00 · 5 apps
- Donyell Malen forward · rating 7.82 · 5 apps
- Matías Soulé forward · rating 7.51 · 5 apps
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé forward · rating 7.96 · 7 apps
- Jude Bellingham midfielder · rating 7.80 · 7 apps
- Arda Güler midfielder · rating 7.71 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Sabah vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Lens vs Sporting CP Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.