Rostov vs Krasnodar Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 16
Russian Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Rostov Arena, Rostov · updated 2026-11-15
Rostov welcome Krasnodar to Rostov Arena in Rostov in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC.
Rostov have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 60% win rate. Krasnodar have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Rostov 34%, the draw 28%, Krasnodar 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rostov 1.25, Krasnodar 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Rostov: form and key numbers
In style Rostov play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.1).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Krasnodar: form and key numbers
In style Krasnodar keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Rostov vs Krasnodar: season averages side by side
| Rostov | Per match this season | Krasnodar |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.6 |
| 47.1 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Rostov
- Rustam Yatimov GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 30 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 41% of his position)
- Ygor Nogueira CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 30 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 18% of his position)
Krasnodar
- Juan Manuel Boselli SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 31 · Creator, Sets up goals from real chances (top 50% of his position)
- Nikita Krivtsov AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 31 · Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant (top 44% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Christian
Christian, 25 · Krasnodar · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 31
Christian, 25, plays as a wide midfielder for Krasnodar in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 31
- RW · Winger Natural, 26
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 23
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 0.51 / 90 | 62% |
| Expected goals | 0.12 / 90 | 56% |
| Key passes | 1.83 / 90 | 53% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.15 / 90 | 45% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.41 / 90 | 39% |
Roles he suits
- ★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- What Christian is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Rostov vs Krasnodar prediction
Krasnodar should have more of the ball, with Rostov likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.25 for Rostov and 1.36 for Krasnodar - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rostov 1-1 Krasnodar
Rostov vs Krasnodar: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.60 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026
- Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Saturday 21 November 2026
- Akron vs Fakel Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Zenit Saturday 21 November 2026
- CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
Rostov vs Krasnodar: questions and answers
When is Rostov vs Krasnodar?
Rostov vs Krasnodar is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16.
Where is Rostov vs Krasnodar played?
At Rostov Arena, Rostov, Rostov's home ground.
Who will win Rostov vs Krasnodar?
It is close: Rostov 34%, draw 28%, Krasnodar 39%. Our prediction is Rostov 1-1 Krasnodar.
Who is the player to watch in Rostov vs Krasnodar?
Christian of Krasnodar: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 31 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rostov vs Krasnodar?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.