Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Azərsun Arena, Baku · updated 2026-10-17
Sabah welcome Borussia Dortmund to Azərsun Arena in Baku in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Sabah have played 10 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 70% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 71% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sabah 35%, the draw 29%, Borussia Dortmund 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sabah 1.17, Borussia Dortmund 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sabah: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.7).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Sabah | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 5.6 | On target | 5.5 |
| 51.7 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 75 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
- Felix Nmecha CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 68 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 60
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 60
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
- LW · Winger Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.07 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots on target | 47% | 67% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 66% |
| Shots | 3.28 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.17 for Sabah and 1.19 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sabah 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Manchester City vs AEK Athens Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Villarreal Tuesday 20 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Porto vs PSV Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Roma vs Slovan Bratislava Tuesday 20 October 2026
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund?
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Azərsun Arena, Baku, Sabah's home ground.
Who will win Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund?
It is close: Sabah 35%, draw 29%, Borussia Dortmund 36%. Our prediction is Sabah 1-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.