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Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 13

Samsunspor welcome Gençlerbirliği to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs in Samsun in Süper Lig Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.

Samsunspor have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Gençlerbirliği have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Samsunspor are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Gençlerbirliği at 32%.

Moneyball's estimate

Samsunspor43%home win
Draw26%draw
Gençlerbirliği32%away win

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

Samsunspor: form and key numbers

In style Samsunspor keep the ball.

Gençlerbirliği: form and key numbers

In style Gençlerbirliği are happy without the ball, play long and direct.

Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: season averages side by side

SamsunsporPer match this seasonGençlerbirliği
11Matches11
1.0Goals scored1.1
2.4Goals conceded1.9
1.13Expected goals (xG)1.10
1.59xG conceded2.02
12.6Shots11.3
3.3On target3.7
52.9Possession %42.0
18%Clean sheets %18%
45%Both teams scored %36%
4.0Corners4.5
1.6Yellow cards1.8
6.71Average rating6.77

Players to watch

Samsunspor

Gençlerbirliği

Scouting spotlight: Tiago Gouveia

Tiago Gouveia, 25 · Gençlerbirliği · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 39

Tiago Gouveia, 25, plays as a winger for Gençlerbirliği in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Successful dribbles 52Expected goals 28Expected assists 42Key passes 56Shots 32Accurate crosses 86Big chances created 27Fouls won 55Dispossessed 13

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 39
  • RW · Winger Natural, 39
  • RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 36

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Accurate crosses1.55 / 9086%
Key passes2.03 / 9056%
Fouls won2.03 / 9055%
Successful dribbles2.15 / 9052%
Expected assists (est.)0.20 / 9042%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
  • ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
  • ★★★ Classic winger Winger

Scout's notes: Crosser.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Tiago Gouveia is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Tiago Gouveia's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği prediction

Samsunspor should have more of the ball, with Gençlerbirliği likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Gençlerbirliği go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.59 for Samsunspor and 1.35 for Gençlerbirliği - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Samsunspor have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.

Prediction: Samsunspor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği

Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: what the numbers say

  1. 1. Samsunspor unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
  2. 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
  3. 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
  4. 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
  5. 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.4 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

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Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: questions and answers

When is Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 13.

Where is Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği played?

At Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs, Samsun, Samsunspor's home ground.

Who will win Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Samsunspor are the favourites: Samsunspor 43%, draw 26%, Gençlerbirliği 32%. Our prediction is Samsunspor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği.

Who is the player to watch in Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Tiago Gouveia of Gençlerbirliği: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 39 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.