Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 13
Süper Lig · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs, Samsun · updated 2026-11-14
Samsunspor welcome Gençlerbirliği to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs in Samsun in Süper Lig Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Samsunspor have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Gençlerbirliği have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Samsunspor are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Gençlerbirliği at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.59, Gençlerbirliği 1.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Samsunspor: form and key numbers
In style Samsunspor keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Gençlerbirliği: form and key numbers
In style Gençlerbirliği are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 2.02 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: season averages side by side
| Samsunspor | Per match this season | Gençlerbirliği |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 2.02 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.7 |
| 52.9 | Possession % | 42.0 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 36% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.71 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Samsunspor
- Celil Yüksel CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 35 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 16% of his position)
- Samed Onur CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 34 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 28% of his position)
Gençlerbirliği
- Zan Zuzek CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
- İrfan Can Eğribayat GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 48 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tiago Gouveia
Tiago Gouveia, 25 · Gençlerbirliği · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 39
Tiago Gouveia, 25, plays as a winger for Gençlerbirliği in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 39
- RW · Winger Natural, 39
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.55 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.03 / 90 | 56% |
| Fouls won | 2.03 / 90 | 55% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.15 / 90 | 52% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 42% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Tiago Gouveia is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tiago Gouveia's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği prediction
Samsunspor should have more of the ball, with Gençlerbirliği likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Gençlerbirliği go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.59 for Samsunspor and 1.35 for Gençlerbirliği - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Samsunspor have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Samsunspor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği
Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: what the numbers say
- 1. Samsunspor unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Süper Lig previews
- Gençlerbirliği vs Gaziantep F.K. Saturday 21 November 2026
- Galatasaray vs Samsunspor Saturday 21 November 2026
- Amed SK vs Rizespor Saturday 21 November 2026
- Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Saturday 21 November 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Sunday 22 November 2026
- Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Sunday 22 November 2026
- Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Sunday 22 November 2026
Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği: questions and answers
When is Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?
Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 13.
Where is Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği played?
At Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs, Samsun, Samsunspor's home ground.
Who will win Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?
Samsunspor are the favourites: Samsunspor 43%, draw 26%, Gençlerbirliği 32%. Our prediction is Samsunspor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği.
Who is the player to watch in Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?
Tiago Gouveia of Gençlerbirliği: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 39 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.