Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Monday 26 October 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla · updated 2026-10-12
Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in Sevilla in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sevilla have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Osasuna have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sevilla are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Osasuna at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sevilla 1.72, Osasuna 1.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sevilla: form and key numbers
In style Sevilla are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 42.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: season averages side by side
| Sevilla | Per match this season | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 9.6 |
| 4.1 | On target | 4.0 |
| 42.0 | Possession % | 45.9 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.62 |
Players to watch
Sevilla
- Gabriel Suazo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 6% of his position)
- Lucien Agoumé DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 55 · Long passer, Ball-winner (top 8% of his position)
Osasuna
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Rubén García RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Press-resistant (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 76
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 65% | 95% |
| Duels won | 7.91 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.74 / 90 | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.65 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Duel winner.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction
Osasuna should have more of the ball; Sevilla are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Osasuna go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.72 for Sevilla and 1.06 for Osasuna - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 54%. Sevilla have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna
Sevilla vs Osasuna betting tips
- Tip 1: Sevilla win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.78 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
Sevilla vs Osasuna: questions and answers
When is Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna played?
At Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla, Sevilla's home ground.
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla are the favourites: Sevilla 52%, draw 25%, Osasuna 23%. Our prediction is Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna.
Who is the player to watch in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.