Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-10-09
Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Stamford Bridge. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes AEK Athens favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 0.77, AEK Athens 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 35% · both teams to score: 40%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (16%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (1 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Per match this season | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.0 |
| 0.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 2.0 | On target | 4.0 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 100% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 7.06 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.