Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-11-13
Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Fenerbahçe to Stamford Bridge in London in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Shakhtar Donetsk have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Fenerbahçe have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 6.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Shakhtar Donetsk are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Fenerbahçe at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.77, Fenerbahçe 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Shakhtar Donetsk: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
In style Fenerbahçe keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: season averages side by side
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Per match this season | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 3.5 | On target | 5.5 |
| 52.5 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Fenerbahçe
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Press-resistant, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Oğuz Aydın LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 44 · Press-resistant, High shot volume (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi, 32 · Fenerbahçe · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57
Vedat Muriqi, 32, plays as a centre-forward for Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 57
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 57% | 100% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.79 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 74% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.7 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Vedat Muriqi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vedat Muriqi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.77 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.26 for Fenerbahçe - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Shakhtar Donetsk have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Fenerbahçe
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: what the numbers say
- 1. Shakhtar Donetsk unbeaten (win or draw) 73% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: questions and answers
When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Shakhtar Donetsk's home ground.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?
Shakhtar Donetsk are the favourites: Shakhtar Donetsk 49%, draw 25%, Fenerbahçe 27%. Our prediction is Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Fenerbahçe.
Who is the player to watch in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?
Vedat Muriqi of Fenerbahçe: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.