Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-10-20
Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Sporting CP to Stamford Bridge in London in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Shakhtar Donetsk have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Sporting CP have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Shakhtar Donetsk 36%, the draw 27%, Sporting CP 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36, Sporting CP 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Shakhtar Donetsk: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: season averages side by side
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Per match this season | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 2 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 9.5 |
| 3.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 50.5 | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 3.5 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.36 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.39 for Sporting CP - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: questions and answers
When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Shakhtar Donetsk's home ground.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
It is close: Shakhtar Donetsk 36%, draw 27%, Sporting CP 37%. Our prediction is Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Sporting CP.
How many goals will there be in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.