SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Prediction and Stats
MLS · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 03:00 UTC · PayPal Park, San Jose · updated 2026-11-13
SJ Earthquakes welcome Houston Dynamo to PayPal Park in San Jose in MLS action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 03:00 UTC.
SJ Earthquakes have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate. Houston Dynamo have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SJ Earthquakes are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 25% and Houston Dynamo at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SJ Earthquakes 1.78, Houston Dynamo 1.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
SJ Earthquakes: form and key numbers
In style SJ Earthquakes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Houston Dynamo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.8).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (46% away).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: season averages side by side
| SJ Earthquakes | Per match this season | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.79 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.2 |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 41% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
SJ Earthquakes
- Paul Marie RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Creator, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- Niko Tsakiris CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 34 · Creator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Houston Dynamo
- Jonathan Bond GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 42 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Jack McGlynn CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 41 · Creator, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Guilherme
Guilherme, 31 · Houston Dynamo · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 44
Guilherme, 31, plays as a winger for Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 44
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 41
- RW · Winger Competent, 26
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.32 / 90 | 80% |
| Key passes | 2.54 / 90 | 71% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.31 / 90 | 57% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
⚠ 15 goals from only 7.2 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Guilherme is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo prediction
SJ Earthquakes should have more of the ball; SJ Earthquakes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.78 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.00 for Houston Dynamo - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 53%. SJ Earthquakes have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SJ Earthquakes 2-1 Houston Dynamo
SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: what the numbers say
- 1. SJ Earthquakes win, the likeliest result 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.78 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: questions and answers
When is SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 03:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo played?
At PayPal Park, San Jose, SJ Earthquakes's home ground.
Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
SJ Earthquakes are the favourites: SJ Earthquakes 55%, draw 25%, Houston Dynamo 20%. Our prediction is SJ Earthquakes 2-1 Houston Dynamo.
Who is the player to watch in SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Guilherme of Houston Dynamo: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.