Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Štadión Tehelné pole, Bratislava · updated 2026-10-09
Slovan Bratislava host VfB Stuttgart in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Štadión Tehelné pole. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Slovan Bratislava slight favourites at 43%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Slovan Bratislava 1.69, VfB Stuttgart 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maximilian Mittelstädt as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 77).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.59 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 3.36 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 3.62 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
Slovan Bratislava concede 1.4 goals a match this season, about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a attacking wing-back like Maximilian Mittelstädt.
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Slovan Bratislava | Per match this season | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 0.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| – | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 4.4 | On target | 5.5 |
| 42.9 | Possession % | 53.0 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; VfB Stuttgart in its domestic league.
Players to watch
VfB Stuttgart
- Maximilian Mittelstädt defender · rating 7.91 · 4 apps
- Josha Vagnoman midfielder · rating 7.35 · 4 apps
- Jeff Chabot defender · rating 7.03 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.