Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Friday 27 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton · updated 2026-11-14
Southampton welcome Middlesbrough to St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Southampton have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 2.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 75% win rate. Middlesbrough have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 8 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Southampton 39%, the draw 25%, Middlesbrough 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Southampton 1.59, Middlesbrough 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Southampton: form and key numbers
In style Southampton keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 15.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Middlesbrough: form and key numbers
In style Middlesbrough keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 19.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 60.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: season averages side by side
| Southampton | Per match this season | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.99 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 15.6 | Shots | 19.1 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.1 |
| 57.2 | Possession % | 60.8 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Southampton
- Daniel Peretz GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 50 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 22% of his position)
- Léo Scienza LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
Middlesbrough
- Aidan Morris CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 45 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 8% of his position)
- Amario Cozier-Duberry RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear, 21 · Middlesbrough · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50
Will Lankshear, 21, plays as a centre-forward for Middlesbrough in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shots on target and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 52% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.85 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 77% |
| Shots | 4.12 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Will Lankshear is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Will Lankshear's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction
Middlesbrough should have more of the ball; Southampton press high to win the ball back; Middlesbrough work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.59 for Southampton and 1.52 for Middlesbrough - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 63%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.11 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
- Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
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- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Southampton vs Middlesbrough: questions and answers
When is Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Southampton vs Middlesbrough is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Southampton vs Middlesbrough played?
At St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Southampton's home ground.
Who will win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
It is close: Southampton 39%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 36%. Our prediction is Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough.
Who is the player to watch in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Will Lankshear of Middlesbrough: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.