Sporting CP vs LASK Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-17
Sporting CP welcome LASK to Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Sporting CP have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. LASK have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sporting CP are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 18% and LASK at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.57, LASK 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
LASK: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 20.8 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Sporting CP vs LASK: season averages side by side
| Sporting CP | Per match this season | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 9.5 | Shots | 20.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.8 |
| 41.0 | Possession % | 42.8 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 2.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Sporting CP vs LASK prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 2.57 for Sporting CP and 1.29 for LASK - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 67%. Sporting CP have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sporting CP 2-1 LASK
Sporting CP vs LASK betting tips
- Tip 1: Sporting CP to win 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 74% by the model, 3.86 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sporting CP vs LASK: questions and answers
When is Sporting CP vs LASK?
Sporting CP vs LASK is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sporting CP vs LASK played?
At Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa, Sporting CP's home ground.
Who will win Sporting CP vs LASK?
Sporting CP are the favourites: Sporting CP 65%, draw 18%, LASK 17%. Our prediction is Sporting CP 2-1 LASK.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs LASK?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.