Sporting CP vs Manchester United Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa · updated 2026-11-13
Sporting CP welcome Manchester United to Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sporting CP have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Manchester United have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sporting CP 39%, the draw 24%, Manchester United 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sporting CP 1.71, Manchester United 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
In style Sporting CP keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 49.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Sporting CP vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Sporting CP | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 4.3 | On target | 6.0 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Sporting CP
- Sergi Altimira DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
- Luis Suárez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes, 32 · Manchester United · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 74
Bruno Fernandes, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shots and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 92% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Bruno Fernandes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Fernandes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sporting CP vs Manchester United prediction
Sporting CP should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.71 for Sporting CP and 1.69 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sporting CP 1-1 Manchester United
Sporting CP vs Manchester United: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sporting CP vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
Sporting CP vs Manchester United is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Sporting CP vs Manchester United played?
At Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa, Sporting CP's home ground.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
It is close: Sporting CP 39%, draw 24%, Manchester United 38%. Our prediction is Sporting CP 1-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.