Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17
Championship · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Bet365 Stadium, Stoke · updated 2026-11-13
Stoke City welcome Millwall to Bet365 Stadium in Stoke in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Stoke City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 44% win rate. Millwall have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 8 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Stoke City are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 25% and Millwall at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Stoke City 1.63, Millwall 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Stoke City: form and key numbers
In style Stoke City are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Millwall: form and key numbers
In style Millwall press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Stoke City vs Millwall: season averages side by side
| Stoke City | Per match this season | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 3.6 | On target | 3.9 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 47% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Stoke City
- Sorba Thomas LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 38 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Luca Bombino LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Millwall
- Josh Coburn CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Lyndon Dykes CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 39 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor, 23 · Millwall · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 40
Caleb Taylor, 23, plays as a centre-back for Millwall in the Championship. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and interceptions. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.53 / 90 | 92% |
| Interceptions | 2.53 / 90 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | 0.60 / 90 | 69% |
| Duels won | 6.33 / 90 | 67% |
| Blocked shots | 1.07 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Reads the game.
- What Caleb Taylor is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Caleb Taylor's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Stoke City vs Millwall prediction
Millwall should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.63 for Stoke City and 1.36 for Millwall - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Stoke City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Stoke City 2-1 Millwall
Stoke City vs Millwall: what the numbers say
- 1. Stoke City unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
- Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Stoke City vs Millwall: questions and answers
When is Stoke City vs Millwall?
Stoke City vs Millwall is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.
Where is Stoke City vs Millwall played?
At Bet365 Stadium, Stoke, Stoke City's home ground.
Who will win Stoke City vs Millwall?
Stoke City are the favourites: Stoke City 43%, draw 25%, Millwall 31%. Our prediction is Stoke City 2-1 Millwall.
Who is the player to watch in Stoke City vs Millwall?
Caleb Taylor of Millwall: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 40 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Millwall?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.