Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 8
Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · updated 2026-10-11
Sunderland welcome Leeds United to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Premier League Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Sunderland have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Leeds United have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sunderland 35%, the draw 27%, Leeds United 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sunderland 1.36, Leeds United 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Sunderland vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match this season | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.8 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 44.5 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Trai Hume RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 13% of his position)
- Gabriel Gudmundsson LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 69 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 84% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 82% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 78% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Rarely wastes a big chance.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction
Sunderland should have more of the ball, with Leeds United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.36 for Sunderland and 1.41 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United
Sunderland vs Leeds United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.77 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
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- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
Sunderland vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Sunderland vs Leeds United is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 8.
Where is Sunderland vs Leeds United played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds United?
It is close: Sunderland 35%, draw 27%, Leeds United 38%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.