Swansea City vs Cardiff City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea · updated 2026-11-15
Swansea City welcome Cardiff City to Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Swansea City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate. Cardiff City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Swansea City are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 23% and Cardiff City at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Swansea City 1.87, Cardiff City 1.57.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Swansea City: form and key numbers
In style Swansea City keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Cardiff City: form and key numbers
In style Cardiff City keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.13 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Swansea City vs Cardiff City: season averages side by side
| Swansea City | Per match this season | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.13 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 6.3 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 60.1 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 7% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Swansea City
- Zan Vipotnik CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 46 · Chance creator, Takes high-quality shots (top 25% of his position)
- Jenson Seelt CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Cardiff City
- Alex Robertson DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 45 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 14% of his position)
- Will Fish CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 44 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Yousef Salech
Yousef Salech, 24 · Cardiff City · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50
Yousef Salech, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Cardiff City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 87% |
| Shots on target | 51% | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.61 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 73% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.60 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Yousef Salech is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Yousef Salech's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Swansea City vs Cardiff City prediction
Cardiff City should have more of the ball; Swansea City press high to win the ball back; Cardiff City go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.87 for Swansea City and 1.57 for Cardiff City - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. Swansea City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City
Swansea City vs Cardiff City: what the numbers say
- 1. Swansea City unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.44 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
- Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Swansea City vs Cardiff City: questions and answers
When is Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Swansea City vs Cardiff City is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Swansea City vs Cardiff City played?
At Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea, Swansea City's home ground.
Who will win Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Swansea City are the favourites: Swansea City 44%, draw 23%, Cardiff City 32%. Our prediction is Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City.
Who is the player to watch in Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Yousef Salech of Cardiff City: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.