TBC vs Nashville SC Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 23:30 UTC · updated 2026-11-14
TBC welcome Nashville SC in MLS action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
TBC have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Nashville SC have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 68% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 35% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nashville SC are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and TBC at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TBC 1.18, Nashville SC 1.68.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (0 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nashville SC: form and key numbers
In style Nashville SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +14.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (53% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
TBC vs Nashville SC: season averages side by side
| TBC | Per match this season | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| – | Matches | 34 |
| – | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| – | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| – | Shots | 12.9 |
| – | On target | 5.2 |
| – | Possession % | 54.3 |
| – | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| – | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| – | Corners | 5.2 |
| – | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| – | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Nashville SC
- Cristian Espinoza RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Brian Schwake GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge, 28 · Nashville SC · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 44
Sam Surridge, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Nashville SC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 44
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 99% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.75 / 90 | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.68 / 90 | 24% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Sam Surridge is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sam Surridge's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TBC vs Nashville SC prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.18 for TBC and 1.68 for Nashville SC - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Nashville SC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: TBC 1-2 Nashville SC
TBC vs Nashville SC: what the numbers say
- 1. Nashville SC unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.86 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
TBC vs Nashville SC: questions and answers
When is TBC vs Nashville SC?
TBC vs Nashville SC is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Who will win TBC vs Nashville SC?
Nashville SC are the favourites: TBC 26%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 49%. Our prediction is TBC 1-2 Nashville SC.
Who is the player to watch in TBC vs Nashville SC?
Sam Surridge of Nashville SC: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TBC vs Nashville SC?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.