Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 19 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 19 September 2026.
Form in numbers
- Tottenham Hotspur create more: 1.04 expected goals a match against 0.93 for Aston Villa.
- Tottenham Hotspur give away less, 1.67 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Tottenham Hotspur 14.2 (3.8 on target), Aston Villa 9.6 (2.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Tottenham Hotspur 54.8%, Aston Villa 32.4%.
| Tottenham Hotspur | Per match | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| 1.67 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 0.40 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 9.6 |
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 2.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 54.8 | Pressure share % | 32.4 |
| 18.6 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Tottenham Hotspur won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 – 3 | Aston Villa |
| 3 May 2026 | Aston Villa | 1 – 2 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 – 2 | Aston Villa |
| 16 May 2025 | Aston Villa | 2 – 0 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 3 Nov 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 – 1 | Aston Villa |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.