Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse · updated 2026-10-10
Toulouse welcome Troyes to Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Toulouse have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Troyes have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Toulouse are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 22% and Troyes at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Toulouse 2.08, Troyes 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 1.86 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 39.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Toulouse vs Troyes: season averages side by side
| Toulouse | Per match this season | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 |
| 1.86 | xG conceded | 1.76 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.6 | On target | 2.8 |
| 52.6 | Possession % | 39.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 7.6 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Toulouse
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
- Guillaume Restes GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 53 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 19% of his position)
- Adrien Monfray CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr., 26 · Toulouse · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79
Cristian Cásseres Jr., 26, plays as a central midfielder for Toulouse in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.60 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.51 / 90 | 100% |
| Dispossessed | 0.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Tackles | 4.40 / 90 | 99% |
| Passes | 86.20 / 90 | 98% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Cristian Cásseres Jr. is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Cristian Cásseres Jr.'s full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Toulouse vs Troyes prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Toulouse like to take players on; Troyes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.08 for Toulouse and 1.32 for Troyes - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 65%. Toulouse have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Toulouse 2-1 Troyes
Toulouse vs Troyes betting tips
- Tip 1: Toulouse win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Toulouse vs Troyes: questions and answers
When is Toulouse vs Troyes?
Toulouse vs Troyes is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Toulouse vs Troyes played?
At Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, Toulouse's home ground.
Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?
Toulouse are the favourites: Toulouse 54%, draw 22%, Troyes 23%. Our prediction is Toulouse 2-1 Troyes.
Who is the player to watch in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Cristian Cásseres Jr. of Toulouse: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.