Troyes vs Marseille: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Monday 12 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Troyes host Marseille in the Ligue 1 on Monday 12 October 2026. The bookmakers make Marseille narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Troyes at 27%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.0% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Troyes +0.5 at 1.95, Marseille at 1.95. The main goals line is 3: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Form in numbers
- Marseille create more: 1.65 expected goals a match against 1.43 for Troyes.
- Troyes give away less, 1.76 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Troyes 14.8 (2.8 on target), Marseille 13.2 (4.8 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Troyes 47.8%, Marseille 51.9%.
| Troyes | Per match | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 47.8 | Pressure share % | 51.9 |
| 19.4 | Tackles | 13.6 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Lyon Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lille vs Le Havre Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.