Udinese vs Roma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Dacia Arena, Udine · updated 2026-10-17
Udinese welcome Roma to Dacia Arena in Udine in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Udinese have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Roma have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 21% and Udinese at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Udinese 1.13, Roma 2.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 18.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Udinese vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Udinese | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.26 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 18.7 |
| 4.2 | On target | 6.2 |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 53.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 7.10 |
Players to watch
Udinese
- Mërgim Vojvoda RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Oumar Solet CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 28% of his position)
Roma
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 92% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Udinese vs Roma prediction
Roma should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.13 for Udinese and 2.14 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 60%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Udinese 1-2 Roma
Udinese vs Roma betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Udinese vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Udinese vs Roma?
Udinese vs Roma is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Udinese vs Roma played?
At Dacia Arena, Udine, Udinese's home ground.
Who will win Udinese vs Roma?
Roma are the favourites: Udinese 19%, draw 21%, Roma 60%. Our prediction is Udinese 1-2 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Udinese vs Roma?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.