Valencia vs Athletic Club: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · updated 2026-10-09
Valencia host Athletic Club in La Liga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Athletic Club favourites at 46%, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Valencia 0.96, Athletic Club 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche, 36 · Athletic Club · LB · Inverted full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Yuri Berchiche as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 67, defensive 39).
- Pass accuracy: 92%, better than 98% of full-backs
- Passes: 66.70 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of full-backs
- Key passes: 1.47 per 90 minutes, better than 92% of full-backs
Valencia score 0.6 goals a match this season from 0.92 expected: stopping them runs through Yuri Berchiche.
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball circulator, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Valencia | Per match this season | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 2.7 | On target | 4.7 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 52.5 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.63 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Valencia
- Aaron Ndive Mayol de la Cueva midfielder · rating 7.05 · 2 apps
- Guido Rodríguez midfielder · rating 7.02 · 4 apps
- Arnaut Danjuma midfielder · rating 6.75 · 7 apps
Athletic Club
- Aitor Paredes defender · rating 7.22 · 4 apps
- Robert Navarro midfielder · rating 7.16 · 5 apps
- Unai Simón goalkeeper · rating 7.12 · 6 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.