Vitória vs Santos Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador · updated 2026-11-15
Vitória welcome Santos to Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Vitória have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 100% win rate. Santos have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Santos are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 27% and Vitória at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vitória 1.20, Santos 1.46.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Vitória: form and key numbers
In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 32% of matches (91% at home).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Santos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Vitória vs Santos: season averages side by side
| Vitória | Per match this season | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 4.1 | On target | 4.3 |
| 44.8 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 32% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 41% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Vitória
- Mateusinho RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 10% of his position)
- Camutanga CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 46 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 16% of his position)
Santos
- Benjamín Rollheiser RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Miguelito AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 50 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 32% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Neymar
Neymar, 34 · Santos · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59
Neymar, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Santos in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and expected goals. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 59
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 56
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 4.38 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.66 / 90 | 89% |
| Key passes | 2.51 / 90 | 66% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Neymar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Vitória vs Santos prediction
Santos should have more of the ball, with Vitória likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Vitória go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.20 for Vitória and 1.46 for Santos - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Santos have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Vitória 1-2 Santos
Vitória vs Santos: what the numbers say
- 1. Santos unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.65 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 15.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Vitória vs Santos: questions and answers
When is Vitória vs Santos?
Vitória vs Santos is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Vitória vs Santos played?
At Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Vitória's home ground.
Who will win Vitória vs Santos?
Santos are the favourites: Vitória 30%, draw 27%, Santos 42%. Our prediction is Vitória 1-2 Santos.
Who is the player to watch in Vitória vs Santos?
Neymar of Santos: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitória vs Santos?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.