Watford vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 17
Championship · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Vicarage Road, Watford · updated 2026-11-13
Watford welcome Blackburn Rovers to Vicarage Road in Watford in Championship Gameweek 17 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Watford have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 8 matches, with a 100% win rate. Blackburn Rovers have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Watford 36%, the draw 28%, Blackburn Rovers 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Watford 1.30, Blackburn Rovers 1.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Watford: form and key numbers
In style Watford are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Blackburn Rovers: form and key numbers
In style Blackburn Rovers play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.3).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers: season averages side by side
| Watford | Per match this season | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| 1.81 | xG conceded | 1.83 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.7 |
| 45.1 | Possession % | 47.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.71 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Watford
- Federico Ravaglia GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 44 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Jordan Zemura LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 22% of his position)
Blackburn Rovers
- Kristi Montgomery DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 42 · Ball-winner, Press-resistant (top 29% of his position)
- Jayden Fevrier RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sean McLoughlin
Sean McLoughlin, 29 · Blackburn Rovers · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 42
Sean McLoughlin, 29, plays as a centre-back for Blackburn Rovers in the Championship. Strongest for his role in clearances and blocked shots. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.93 / 90 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 1.47 / 90 | 86% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 76% |
| Dribbled past | 0.20 / 90 | 71% |
| Long balls | 3.47 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Blocks shots.
- What Sean McLoughlin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sean McLoughlin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers prediction
Blackburn Rovers should have more of the ball; Watford like to take players on; Blackburn Rovers go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.30 for Watford and 1.31 for Blackburn Rovers - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Watford 1-1 Blackburn Rovers
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.61 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Watford vs Blackburn Rovers: questions and answers
When is Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
Watford vs Blackburn Rovers is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 17.
Where is Watford vs Blackburn Rovers played?
At Vicarage Road, Watford, Watford's home ground.
Who will win Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
It is close: Watford 36%, draw 28%, Blackburn Rovers 36%. Our prediction is Watford 1-1 Blackburn Rovers.
Who is the player to watch in Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
Sean McLoughlin of Blackburn Rovers: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Blackburn Rovers?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.