West Ham United vs Stoke City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · London Stadium, London · updated 2026-11-14
West Ham United welcome Stoke City to London Stadium in London in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
West Ham United have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 50% win rate. Stoke City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 8 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, West Ham United are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 21% and Stoke City at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: West Ham United 2.15, Stoke City 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
West Ham United: form and key numbers
In style West Ham United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.1).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 57.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Stoke City: form and key numbers
In style Stoke City are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
West Ham United vs Stoke City: season averages side by side
| West Ham United | Per match this season | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 17.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 6.6 | On target | 3.6 |
| 57.9 | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
West Ham United
- Arne Engels CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 41 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
- Oliver Scarles LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Crosser, Creator (top 20% of his position)
Stoke City
- Sorba Thomas LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 38 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Luca Bombino LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen, 29 · West Ham United · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
Jarrod Bowen, 29, plays as a winger for West Ham United in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.01 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.45 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.87 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 3.15 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Jarrod Bowen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jarrod Bowen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
West Ham United vs Stoke City prediction
West Ham United should have more of the ball, with Stoke City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; West Ham United work the ball wide and cross; Stoke City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.15 for West Ham United and 1.20 for Stoke City - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 62%. West Ham United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: West Ham United 2-1 Stoke City
West Ham United vs Stoke City: what the numbers say
- 1. West Ham United win, the likeliest result 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
- Southampton vs Derby County Saturday 21 November 2026
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
West Ham United vs Stoke City: questions and answers
When is West Ham United vs Stoke City?
West Ham United vs Stoke City is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is West Ham United vs Stoke City played?
At London Stadium, London, West Ham United's home ground.
Who will win West Ham United vs Stoke City?
West Ham United are the favourites: West Ham United 58%, draw 21%, Stoke City 20%. Our prediction is West Ham United 2-1 Stoke City.
Who is the player to watch in West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.