Wrexham vs Portsmouth Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Racecourse Ground, Racecourse Ground · updated 2026-11-14
Wrexham welcome Portsmouth to Racecourse Ground in Racecourse Ground in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Wrexham have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 8 matches, with a 75% win rate. Portsmouth have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Wrexham 38%, the draw 30%, Portsmouth 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Wrexham 1.22, Portsmouth 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Wrexham: form and key numbers
In style Wrexham play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Portsmouth: form and key numbers
In style Portsmouth play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Wrexham vs Portsmouth: season averages side by side
| Wrexham | Per match this season | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 |
| 1.26 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.6 |
| 48.1 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Wrexham
- Max Cleworth CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 40% of his position)
- George Dobson DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 32 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 41% of his position)
Portsmouth
- Conor Shaughnessy CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 36 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
- Benjamin Arthur CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 36 · Disciplined, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović, 23 · Portsmouth · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 47
Marko Milovanović, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Portsmouth in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 47
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.34 xG/shot | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.71 / 90 | 75% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.66 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots on target | 43% | 58% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.84 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots.
- What Marko Milovanović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marko Milovanović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Wrexham vs Portsmouth prediction
Portsmouth should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.22 for Wrexham and 1.09 for Portsmouth - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 48%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Wrexham 1-1 Portsmouth
Wrexham vs Portsmouth: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 59% by the model, 2.31 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Wrexham vs Portsmouth: questions and answers
When is Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Wrexham vs Portsmouth is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Wrexham vs Portsmouth played?
At Racecourse Ground, Racecourse Ground, Wrexham's home ground.
Who will win Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
It is close: Wrexham 38%, draw 30%, Portsmouth 32%. Our prediction is Wrexham 1-1 Portsmouth.
Who is the player to watch in Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Marko Milovanović of Portsmouth: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.