Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 11
Liga Portugal · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo · updated 2026-10-25
Alverca welcome Casa Pia to Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Alverca have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate. Casa Pia have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Alverca are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 24% and Casa Pia at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Alverca 1.84, Casa Pia 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Alverca: form and key numbers
In style Alverca are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 41.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Casa Pia: form and key numbers
In style Casa Pia are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 22% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: season averages side by side
| Alverca | Per match this season | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 3.8 | On target | 2.8 |
| 41.1 | Possession % | 43.1 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 22% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Players to watch
Alverca
- Dawda Camara CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 18% of his position)
- Isaac James LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 46 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 17% of his position)
Casa Pia
- David Sousa CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Ivan Mandić GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 49 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, 26 · Alverca · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 58
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, 26, plays as a winger for Alverca in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 58
- RW · Winger Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 4.85 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 2.59 / 90 | 78% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.29 / 90 | 77% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.10 / 90 | 64% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
- What Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Casa Pia should have more of the ball; Alverca like to take players on; Casa Pia are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.84 for Alverca and 0.87 for Casa Pia - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 50%. Alverca have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Alverca 2-1 Casa Pia
Alverca vs Casa Pia betting tips
- Tip 1: Alverca to win 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Alverca vs Casa Pia: questions and answers
When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca vs Casa Pia is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11.
Where is Alverca vs Casa Pia played?
At Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo, Alverca's home ground.
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca are the favourites: Alverca 59%, draw 24%, Casa Pia 17%. Our prediction is Alverca 2-1 Casa Pia.
Who is the player to watch in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira of Alverca: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.