Santa Clara vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 9
Liga Portugal · Monday 26 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada · updated 2026-10-25
Santa Clara welcome Benfica to Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Santa Clara have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 63% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate. Benfica have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 3.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Santa Clara 32%, the draw 29%, Benfica 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.13, Benfica 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Santa Clara: form and key numbers
In style Santa Clara play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 0.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Benfica: form and key numbers
In style Benfica keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 0.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.4).
- Shots: 19.6 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 63.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Santa Clara vs Benfica: season averages side by side
| Santa Clara | Per match this season | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.32 |
| 0.75 | xG conceded | 0.73 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 19.6 |
| 3.5 | On target | 6.9 |
| 47.4 | Possession % | 63.4 |
| 63% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 7.8 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
Santa Clara
- Vinícius Lopes RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Draws fouls, Chance creator (top 16% of his position)
- Gonçalo Paciência CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 48 · High shot volume, Clinical finisher (top 31% of his position)
Benfica
- Vangelis Pavlidis CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74 · Takes high-quality shots, Chance creator (top 10% of his position)
- Andreas Schjelderup LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni, 20 · Benfica · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 83
Gianluca Prestianni, 20, plays as a winger for Benfica in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 83
- RW · Winger Natural, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.21 / 90 | 94% |
| Fouls won | 3.40 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Big chances created | 0.82 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.99 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Creator.
- What Gianluca Prestianni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gianluca Prestianni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction
Benfica should have more of the ball, with Santa Clara likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Santa Clara go long and direct; Benfica are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.13 for Santa Clara and 1.29 for Benfica - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Santa Clara 1-1 Benfica
Santa Clara vs Benfica betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Santa Clara vs Benfica: questions and answers
When is Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Santa Clara vs Benfica is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9.
Where is Santa Clara vs Benfica played?
At Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Santa Clara's home ground.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
It is close: Santa Clara 32%, draw 29%, Benfica 40%. Our prediction is Santa Clara 1-1 Benfica.
Who is the player to watch in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Gianluca Prestianni of Benfica: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.