Rio Ave vs Famalicão Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 9
Liga Portugal · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde · updated 2026-10-25
Rio Ave welcome Famalicão to Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Rio Ave have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Famalicão have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Rio Ave 31%, the draw 28%, Famalicão 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.17, Famalicão 1.37.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Rio Ave: form and key numbers
In style Rio Ave are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.77 a match created, 1.86 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 7.6 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.60.
Famalicão: form and key numbers
In style Famalicão keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.84 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Rio Ave vs Famalicão: season averages side by side
| Rio Ave | Per match this season | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.84 |
| 1.86 | xG conceded | 1.42 |
| 7.6 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 3.1 | On target | 3.3 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 55.3 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.60 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Rio Ave
- Marios Vrousai RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 43 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Jalen Blesa CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 39 · Accurate shooter, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 1% of his position)
Famalicão
- Léo Realpe CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 47 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 19% of his position)
- Mathias de Amorim CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 43 · Dribbler, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcos Peña
Marcos Peña, 21 · Famalicão · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 51
Marcos Peña, 21, plays as a central midfielder for Famalicão in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in tackles and pass accuracy. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 51
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 3.87 / 90 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 85% |
| Dispossessed | 0.23 / 90 | 85% |
| Long balls | 2.96 / 90 | 73% |
| Passes | 61.06 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Secure passer, Press-resistant.
- What Marcos Peña is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcos Peña's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rio Ave vs Famalicão prediction
Famalicão should have more of the ball, with Rio Ave likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Rio Ave go long and direct; Famalicão like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.17 for Rio Ave and 1.37 for Famalicão - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rio Ave 1-1 Famalicão
Rio Ave vs Famalicão betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.54 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Rio Ave vs Famalicão: questions and answers
When is Rio Ave vs Famalicão?
Rio Ave vs Famalicão is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9.
Where is Rio Ave vs Famalicão played?
At Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde, Rio Ave's home ground.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Famalicão?
It is close: Rio Ave 31%, draw 28%, Famalicão 41%. Our prediction is Rio Ave 1-1 Famalicão.
Who is the player to watch in Rio Ave vs Famalicão?
Marcos Peña of Famalicão: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Famalicão?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.