Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos · updated 2026-10-25
Moreirense welcome Estrela Amadora to Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Moreirense have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Estrela Amadora have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Estrela Amadora are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Moreirense at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Moreirense 1.31, Estrela Amadora 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Moreirense: form and key numbers
In style Moreirense are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.82 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 7.9 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 36.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Estrela Amadora: form and key numbers
In style Estrela Amadora keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora: season averages side by side
| Moreirense | Per match this season | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.33 |
| 7.9 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 2.8 | On target | 4.3 |
| 36.1 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 2.4 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.64 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Moreirense
- Tiago Andrade LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 48 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 3% of his position)
Estrela Amadora
- Ianis Stoica LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 45 · Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
- Leandro Antonetti CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 38 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 38% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus, 26 · Estrela Amadora · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 53
Abraham Marcus, 26, plays as a winger for Estrela Amadora in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 53
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.80 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 85% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.05 / 90 | 63% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.91 / 90 | 60% |
| Expected goals | 0.27 / 90 | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Abraham Marcus is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Abraham Marcus's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora prediction
Estrela Amadora should have more of the ball, with Moreirense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Moreirense go long and direct; Estrela Amadora work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.31 for Moreirense and 1.65 for Estrela Amadora - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Estrela Amadora have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Moreirense 1-2 Estrela Amadora
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora betting tips
- Tip 1: Estrela Amadora win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora: questions and answers
When is Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora?
Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora played?
At Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos, Moreirense's home ground.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora?
Estrela Amadora are the favourites: Moreirense 30%, draw 25%, Estrela Amadora 45%. Our prediction is Moreirense 1-2 Estrela Amadora.
Who is the player to watch in Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora?
Abraham Marcus of Estrela Amadora: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.