Porto vs Estoril Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-10-25
Porto welcome Estoril to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Porto have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 44% win rate. Estoril have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Porto are clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 16% and Estoril at 7%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Porto 2.33, Estoril 0.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 39%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Porto: form and key numbers
In style Porto keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created, 0.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Estoril: form and key numbers
In style Estoril play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Porto vs Estoril: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match this season | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 0.4 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 2.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.92 |
| 0.94 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 6.2 | On target | 5.0 |
| 55.2 | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 56% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.9 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Porto
- Jan Bednarek CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Borja Sainz LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Estoril
- Ismael Sierra CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 11% of his position)
- Jordan Holsgrove DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 49 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga, 24 · Porto · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 64
Gabri Veiga, 24, plays as an attacking midfielder for Porto in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 64
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.94 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 88% |
| Dispossessed | 0.63 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Gabri Veiga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gabri Veiga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Porto vs Estoril prediction
Porto should have more of the ball, with Estoril likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Porto are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Estoril go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 2.33 for Porto and 0.55 for Estoril - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 39%. Porto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Porto 3-0 Estoril
Porto vs Estoril betting tips
- Tip 1: Porto to win 77% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.88 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Porto vs Estoril: questions and answers
When is Porto vs Estoril?
Porto vs Estoril is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Porto vs Estoril played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs Estoril?
Porto are the favourites: Porto 77%, draw 16%, Estoril 7%. Our prediction is Porto 3-0 Estoril.
Who is the player to watch in Porto vs Estoril?
Gabri Veiga of Porto: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs Estoril?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.