Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Friday 30 October 2026 · 20:15 UTC · Estádio Pina Manique, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-25
Casa Pia welcome Sporting CP to Estádio Pina Manique in Lisboa in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
Casa Pia have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Sporting CP have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sporting CP are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 21% and Casa Pia at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.83, Sporting CP 2.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Casa Pia: form and key numbers
In style Casa Pia are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 22% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
In style Sporting CP keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 59.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: season averages side by side
| Casa Pia | Per match this season | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 0.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 9.7 | Shots | 12.9 |
| 2.8 | On target | 5.5 |
| 43.1 | Possession % | 59.1 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 22% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Casa Pia
- David Sousa CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Ivan Mandić GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 49 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Sporting CP
- Fotis Ioannidis CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
- Luis Suárez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 54 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergi Altimira
Sergi Altimira, 25 · Sporting CP · DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 64
Sergi Altimira, 25, plays as a defensive midfielder for Sporting CP in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and tackles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 64
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 94% | 99% |
| Tackles | 3.77 / 90 | 91% |
| Long balls | 4.39 / 90 | 88% |
| Duels won | 7.28 / 90 | 87% |
| Passes | 75.19 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball-winner, Long passer.
- What Sergi Altimira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergi Altimira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction
Sporting CP should have more of the ball, with Casa Pia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Casa Pia are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Sporting CP like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.83 for Casa Pia and 2.07 for Sporting CP - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 50%. Sporting CP have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP betting tips
- Tip 1: Sporting CP to win 66% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: questions and answers
When is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP played?
At Estádio Pina Manique, Lisboa, Casa Pia's home ground.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP are the favourites: Casa Pia 13%, draw 21%, Sporting CP 66%. Our prediction is Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP.
Who is the player to watch in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Sergi Altimira of Sporting CP: a deep-lying playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.