Arouca vs Nacional Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca · updated 2026-10-25
Arouca welcome Nacional to Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Arouca have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 56% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Nacional have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arouca are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 24% and Nacional at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arouca 1.83, Nacional 0.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Arouca: form and key numbers
In style Arouca cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 51.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Nacional: form and key numbers
In style Nacional play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Arouca vs Nacional: season averages side by side
| Arouca | Per match this season | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 1.29 | xG conceded | 1.75 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.1 |
| 51.4 | Possession % | 49.9 |
| 56% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Arouca
- Ignacio de Arruabarrena GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 52 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 24% of his position)
- José Fontán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
Nacional
Scouting spotlight: Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui, 22 · Arouca · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 53
Taichi Fukui, 22, plays as a central midfielder for Arouca in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in interceptions and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 53
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 1.74 / 90 | 67% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 66% |
| Dispossessed | 0.58 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Taichi Fukui is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Taichi Fukui's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Arouca should have more of the ball; Arouca work the ball wide and cross; Nacional are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.83 for Arouca and 0.93 for Nacional - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 52%. Arouca have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arouca 2-1 Nacional
Arouca vs Nacional betting tips
- Tip 1: Arouca to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Arouca vs Nacional: questions and answers
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca vs Nacional is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Arouca vs Nacional played?
At Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca, Arouca's home ground.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca are the favourites: Arouca 58%, draw 24%, Nacional 18%. Our prediction is Arouca 2-1 Nacional.
Who is the player to watch in Arouca vs Nacional?
Taichi Fukui of Arouca: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Nacional?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.