Atalanta vs Pafos Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Atalanta welcome Pafos to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Atalanta have played 5 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Pafos have played 4 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atalanta are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Pafos at 15%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atalanta -1.25 at 1.85, Pafos at 1.83. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 1.78, which gives over 48%.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Pafos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.49 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.0).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Atalanta vs Pafos: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match | Pafos |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.49 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | 0.5 |
| 38.6 | Pressure share % | – |
| 12.6 | Tackles | 7.3 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 46 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano, 26 · Atalanta · DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 49
Gianluca Gaetano, 26, plays as a defensive midfielder for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in interceptions and pass accuracy. Weakest in blocked shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 49
- CM · Central midfielder Competent, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.88 / 90 | 75% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 65% |
| Tackles | 2.19 / 90 | 59% |
| Duels won | 4.06 / 90 | 48% |
| Passes | 51.25 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- What Gianluca Gaetano is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gianluca Gaetano's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Pafos prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.32 for Atalanta and 1.24 for Pafos - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 53%. Atalanta have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-0 Pafos
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Atalanta vs Pafos betting tips
- Tip 1: Atalanta to win 64% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.56 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Atalanta vs Pafos: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Pafos?
Atalanta vs Pafos is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Atalanta vs Pafos played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
Atalanta are the favourites: Atalanta 64%, draw 21%, Pafos 15%. Our prediction is Atalanta 1-0 Pafos.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Pafos?
Gianluca Gaetano of Atalanta: a ball-winner with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Pafos?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.