KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
KAA Gent welcome AGF Aarhus to Planet Group Arena in Gent in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
KAA Gent have played 6 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. AGF Aarhus have played 4 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, KAA Gent are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 25% and AGF Aarhus at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is KAA Gent -0.75 at 1.74, AGF Aarhus at 1.95. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.79, under 1.88, which gives over 51%.
KAA Gent: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.36 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.56.
AGF Aarhus: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus: season averages side by side
| KAA Gent | Per match | AGF Aarhus |
|---|---|---|
| 0.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 0.83 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 0.3 | Big chances missed | 0.5 |
| 2.3 | Tackles | 12.5 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 4 measured matches.
KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.41 for KAA Gent and 0.82 for AGF Aarhus - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 43%. KAA Gent have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: KAA Gent 1-0 AGF Aarhus
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus betting tips
- Tip 1: KAA Gent to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 2.22 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus: questions and answers
When is KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus?
KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus played?
At Planet Group Arena, Gent, KAA Gent's home ground.
Who will win KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus?
KAA Gent are the favourites: KAA Gent 57%, draw 25%, AGF Aarhus 19%. Our prediction is KAA Gent 1-0 AGF Aarhus.
How many goals will there be in KAA Gent vs AGF Aarhus?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.