CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
CSKA Sofia welcome AS Monaco to Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
CSKA Sofia have played 8 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. AS Monaco have played 5 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Monaco are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 22% and CSKA Sofia at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is CSKA Sofia +1.25 at 1.68, AS Monaco at 2.00. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 1.84, which gives over 50%.
CSKA Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.41.
AS Monaco: form and key numbers
In style AS Monaco are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco: season averages side by side
| CSKA Sofia | Per match | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 1.13 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 0.1 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| – | Pressure share % | 41.0 |
| – | Tackles | 22.8 |
| 16.3 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 5 measured matches.
CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- CSKA Sofia have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 1 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: CSKA Sofia 1, AS Monaco 2 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AS Monaco 2-1 CSKA Sofia (December 14th 2005).
Head to head
In their last 1 meetings CSKA Sofia won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2005 | AS Monaco | 2 – 1 | CSKA Sofia |
Players to watch
AS Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 80% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 73% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 67% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 0.86 for CSKA Sofia and 1.27 for AS Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams scoring at 42%. AS Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: CSKA Sofia 0-1 AS Monaco
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Monaco to win 62% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 2.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco in the Match Centre Follow it live
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CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco: questions and answers
When is CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco?
CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco played?
At Stadion Vasil Levski, Karlovo, CSKA Sofia's home ground.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco?
AS Monaco are the favourites: CSKA Sofia 16%, draw 22%, AS Monaco 62%. Our prediction is CSKA Sofia 0-1 AS Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.