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Hajduk Split vs Ajax: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split · updated 2026-10-09

Hajduk Split host Ajax in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stadion Poljud. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Ajax favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 19% and expects about 4.7 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Hajduk Split31%fair odds 3.18
Draw19%fair odds 5.20
Ajax49%fair odds 2.03

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

Hajduk SplitPer match this seasonAjax
4Matches6
3.5Goals scored3.7
1.5Goals conceded1.7
0.36Expected goals (xG)3.39
11.3Shots24.2
5.3On target10.3
51.8Possession %66.2
25%Clean sheets %0%
75%Both teams scored %100%
5.8Corners9.2
1.8Yellow cards1.2
6.53Average rating7.05

Averages per match from Sportmonks.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.