Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Augsburg welcome SC Freiburg to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026.
Augsburg have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Augsburg 34%, the draw 26%, SC Freiburg 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Augsburg +0.25 at 1.93, SC Freiburg at 1.98. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created, 2.88 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 17.4 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg press high, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Augsburg | Per match | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 2.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.82 |
| 2.88 | xG conceded | 1.13 |
| 2.43 | Goals | 2.29 |
| 17.4 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 42.6 | Pressure share % | 63.2 |
| 16.7 | Tackles | 13.1 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Augsburg have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Augsburg 6, SC Freiburg 6 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg (January 18th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Augsburg won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Augsburg | 2 – 2 | SC Freiburg |
| 23 Aug 2025 | SC Freiburg | 1 – 3 | Augsburg |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Augsburg | 0 – 0 | SC Freiburg |
| 19 Oct 2024 | SC Freiburg | 3 – 1 | Augsburg |
Players to watch
Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 75 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 69 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Yuito Suzuki SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 81
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 81
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 67% | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.86 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.13 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with Augsburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.85 for Augsburg and 2.15 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 75%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 57% by the model, 4.01 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 75% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is on Saturday 31 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Augsburg vs SC Freiburg played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
It is close: Augsburg 34%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg 40%. Our prediction is Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 81 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.