SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction and Betting Tips
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
SV Elversberg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg in Bundesliga action on Saturday 31 October 2026.
SV Elversberg have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. FSV Mainz 05 have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 3.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, FSV Mainz 05 are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and SV Elversberg at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is SV Elversberg +0.25 at 2.05, FSV Mainz 05 at 1.85. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.01, under 1.88, which gives over 48%.
SV Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style SV Elversberg are happy without the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 2.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.14 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: season averages side by side
| SV Elversberg | Per match | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.14 |
| 2.38 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 1.71 | Goals | 2.29 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 17.7 |
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 34.6 | Pressure share % | 69.5 |
| 14.7 | Tackles | 16.9 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
SV Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 71 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Maximilian Rohr CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
FSV Mainz 05
- Anthony Caci RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Sheraldo Becker LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 67 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 71
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.87 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.15 / 90 | 91% |
| Duels won | 7.73 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals | 0.72 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, High shot volume, Duel winner.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with SV Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals - 1.89 for SV Elversberg and 2.19 for FSV Mainz 05 - with over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 76%. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: SV Elversberg 1-3 FSV Mainz 05
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 betting tips
- Tip 1: FSV Mainz 05 win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 58% by the model, 4.08 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 76% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Match Centre Follow it live
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SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
When is SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 is on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
Where is SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
At URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, SV Elversberg's home ground.
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites: SV Elversberg 31%, draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 43%. Our prediction is SV Elversberg 1-3 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the player to watch in SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 77%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.