Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Austin FC welcome Real Salt Lake to Q2 Stadium in Major League Soccer action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
Austin FC have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Real Salt Lake have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 18% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Austin FC 35%, the draw 27%, Real Salt Lake 38%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Austin FC 0 at 1.94, Real Salt Lake at 1.78. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 1.83, which gives over 49%.
Austin FC: form and key numbers
In style Austin FC play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Real Salt Lake: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake: season averages side by side
| Austin FC | Per match | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.55 |
| 1.29 | Goals | 1.55 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 44.8 | Pressure share % | 47.4 |
| 12.2 | Tackles | 15.3 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Austin FC have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Austin FC 6, Real Salt Lake 13 - 3.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Real Salt Lake 2-1 Austin FC (March 15th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Austin FC won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Real Salt Lake | 2 – 1 | Austin FC |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Real Salt Lake | 3 – 1 | Austin FC |
| 29 May 2025 | Austin FC | 1 – 1 | Real Salt Lake |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Austin FC | 2 – 2 | Real Salt Lake |
| 2 Jun 2024 | Real Salt Lake | 5 – 1 | Austin FC |
Players to watch
Austin FC
- Brad Stuver GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 42 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 39% of his position)
- Damian Las GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 35 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 42% of his position)
Real Salt Lake
- Saba Lobjanidze LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Crosser, Press-resistant (top 11% of his position)
- Victor Olatunji CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 40 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Diego Luna
Diego Luna, 23 · Real Salt Lake · LMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 41
Diego Luna, 23, plays as a wide midfielder for Real Salt Lake in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 41
- LW · Winger Natural, 40
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 3.30 / 90 | 87% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.17 / 90 | 60% |
| Expected goals | 0.22 / 90 | 60% |
| Interceptions | 0.88 / 90 | 27% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator.
- What Diego Luna is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Diego Luna's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake prediction
Austin FC should have more of the ball; Austin FC go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.47 for Austin FC and 1.84 for Real Salt Lake - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Austin FC 1-1 Real Salt Lake
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Major League Soccer previews
- Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal Thursday 29 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Thursday 29 October 2026
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Thursday 29 October 2026
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United Thursday 29 October 2026
- Toronto FC vs DC United Thursday 29 October 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Orlando City Thursday 29 October 2026
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake: questions and answers
When is Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake played?
At Q2 Stadium, Austin FC's home ground.
Who will win Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake?
It is close: Austin FC 35%, draw 27%, Real Salt Lake 38%. Our prediction is Austin FC 1-1 Real Salt Lake.
Who is the player to watch in Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Diego Luna of Real Salt Lake: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 41 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.