Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Inter Miami welcome FC Cincinnati to Nu Stadium in Major League Soccer action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
Inter Miami have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 48% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 40% win rate. FC Cincinnati have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 27% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Miami are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 19% and FC Cincinnati at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Inter Miami -1.25 at 1.90, FC Cincinnati at 1.83. The main goals line is 4: over 1.93, under 1.78, which gives over 48%.
Inter Miami: form and key numbers
In style Inter Miami keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +13.7).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
FC Cincinnati: form and key numbers
In style FC Cincinnati press high, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.8).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati: season averages side by side
| Inter Miami | Per match | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 1.91 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 1.84 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 2.35 | Goals | 2.06 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 2.2 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 45.6 | Pressure share % | 56.1 |
| 14.5 | Tackles | 14.5 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Inter Miami have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Inter Miami 12, FC Cincinnati 12 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished FC Cincinnati 3-5 Inter Miami (May 13th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Inter Miami won 3, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | FC Cincinnati | 3 – 5 | Inter Miami |
| 23 Nov 2025 | FC Cincinnati | 0 – 4 | Inter Miami |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Inter Miami | 0 – 0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 16 Jul 2025 | FC Cincinnati | 3 – 0 | Inter Miami |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Inter Miami | 2 – 0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 6 Jul 2024 | FC Cincinnati | 6 – 1 | Inter Miami |
Players to watch
Inter Miami
- Lionel Messi RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Yannick Bright DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
FC Cincinnati
- Tyrell Malacia LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 16% of his position)
- Kévin Denkey CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 37 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evander
Evander, 28 · Cincinnati · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 66
Evander, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cincinnati in the MLS. Strongest for his role in through balls and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- RW · Winger Competent, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.32 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 3.51 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 3.79 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Evander is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati prediction
Inter Miami should have more of the ball; FC Cincinnati work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 5.3 goals - 3.13 for Inter Miami and 2.17 for FC Cincinnati - with over 2.5 goals at 90% and both teams scoring at 85%. Inter Miami have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Miami 3-2 FC Cincinnati
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Miami to win 62% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 77% by the model, 5.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 85% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati: questions and answers
When is Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati?
Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati played?
At Nu Stadium, Inter Miami's home ground.
Who will win Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati?
Inter Miami are the favourites: Inter Miami 62%, draw 19%, FC Cincinnati 19%. Our prediction is Inter Miami 3-2 FC Cincinnati.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati?
Evander of Cincinnati: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati?
Moneyball's model expects about 5.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 90%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.