Toronto FC vs DC United Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Toronto FC welcome DC United to BMO Field in Major League Soccer action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
Toronto FC have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 63% win rate. DC United have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 23% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Toronto FC are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27% and DC United at 28%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Toronto FC -0.5 at 1.89, DC United at 1.84. The main goals line is 3: over 1.80, under 1.90, which gives over 51%.
Toronto FC: form and key numbers
In style Toronto FC are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 77% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
DC United: form and key numbers
In style DC United are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Toronto FC vs DC United: season averages side by side
| Toronto FC | Per match | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.84 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 1.55 | Goals | 1.23 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 41.9 | Pressure share % | 44.2 |
| 14.4 | Tackles | 18.4 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
Toronto FC vs DC United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Toronto FC have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Toronto FC 8, DC United 9 - 3.4 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished DC United 2-1 Toronto FC (July 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Toronto FC won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | DC United | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC |
| 10 May 2025 | Toronto FC | 2 – 0 | DC United |
| 23 Feb 2025 | DC United | 2 – 2 | Toronto FC |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Toronto FC | 1 – 3 | DC United |
| 1 Jun 2024 | DC United | 2 – 2 | Toronto FC |
Players to watch
Toronto FC
- Raheem Edwards LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Pereira LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 31 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 16% of his position)
DC United
- Nikola Marković CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
- Hosei Kijima CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 34 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello, 27 · Toronto · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 45
Alonso Coello, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Toronto in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 45
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 94% |
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 3.76 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Alonso Coello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alonso Coello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Toronto FC vs DC United prediction
Toronto FC should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.09 for Toronto FC and 1.66 for DC United - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Toronto FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Toronto FC 3-1 DC United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Toronto FC vs DC United betting tips
- Tip 1: Toronto FC win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 52% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Toronto FC vs DC United in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Major League Soccer previews
- Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal Thursday 29 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Thursday 29 October 2026
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Thursday 29 October 2026
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United Thursday 29 October 2026
- Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake Thursday 29 October 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Orlando City Thursday 29 October 2026
Toronto FC vs DC United: questions and answers
When is Toronto FC vs DC United?
Toronto FC vs DC United is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is Toronto FC vs DC United played?
At BMO Field, Toronto FC's home ground.
Who will win Toronto FC vs DC United?
Toronto FC are the favourites: Toronto FC 46%, draw 27%, DC United 28%. Our prediction is Toronto FC 3-1 DC United.
Who is the player to watch in Toronto FC vs DC United?
Alonso Coello of Toronto: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 45 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Toronto FC vs DC United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.