New York City FC vs Atlanta United Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
New York City FC welcome Atlanta United to Yankee Stadium in New York City in Major League Soccer action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
New York City FC have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Atlanta United have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, New York City FC are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Atlanta United at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is New York City FC -0.75 at 1.93, Atlanta United at 1.79. The main goals line is 3: over 1.93, under 1.78, which gives over 48%.
New York City FC: form and key numbers
In style New York City FC keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Atlanta United: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United: season averages side by side
| New York City FC | Per match | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.62 |
| 1.45 | Goals | 1.26 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 47.1 | Pressure share % | 45.3 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- New York City FC have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: New York City FC 12, Atlanta United 9 - 4.2 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Atlanta United 2-2 New York City FC (September 26th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings New York City FC won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Atlanta United | 2 – 2 | New York City FC |
| 12 Jun 2025 | New York City FC | 4 – 0 | Atlanta United |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Atlanta United | 4 – 3 | New York City FC |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Atlanta United | 2 – 2 | New York City FC |
| 6 Apr 2024 | New York City FC | 1 – 1 | Atlanta United |
Players to watch
New York City FC
- James Sands DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 42 · Press-resistant, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
- Tayvon Gray RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 21% of his position)
Atlanta United
- Steven Alzate CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 36 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 21% of his position)
- Mauricio Amaro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón, 32 · Atlanta United · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 43
Miguel Almirón, 32, plays as a winger for Atlanta United in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 43
- RW · Winger Natural, 43
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 67% |
| Key passes | 2.48 / 90 | 66% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.06 / 90 | 65% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- What Miguel Almirón is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Miguel Almirón's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New York City FC vs Atlanta United prediction
New York City FC should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.96 for New York City FC and 1.29 for Atlanta United - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 63%. New York City FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
New York City FC vs Atlanta United betting tips
- Tip 1: New York City FC win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open New York City FC vs Atlanta United in the Match Centre Follow it live
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New York City FC vs Atlanta United: questions and answers
When is New York City FC vs Atlanta United?
New York City FC vs Atlanta United is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is New York City FC vs Atlanta United played?
At Yankee Stadium, New York City, New York City FC's home ground.
Who will win New York City FC vs Atlanta United?
New York City FC are the favourites: New York City FC 50%, draw 26%, Atlanta United 24%. Our prediction is New York City FC 2-1 Atlanta United.
Who is the player to watch in New York City FC vs Atlanta United?
Miguel Almirón of Atlanta United: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New York City FC vs Atlanta United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.