Chicago Fire vs Orlando City Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago · updated 2026-10-25
Chicago Fire welcome Orlando City to Soldier Field in Chicago in MLS action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Chicago Fire have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 48% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 60% win rate. Orlando City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 39% of them. Away from home they average 1.9 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Chicago Fire are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 19% and Orlando City at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.49, Orlando City 1.46.
- Over 2.5 goals: 75% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Chicago Fire: form and key numbers
In style Chicago Fire create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Orlando City: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +11.4).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City: season averages side by side
| Chicago Fire | Per match this season | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.96 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 5.2 | On target | 5.1 |
| 51.7 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 23% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Chicago Fire
- Hugo Cuypers CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 55 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Philip Zinckernagel RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Orlando City
- Joran Gerbet DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 33 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
- Wilder Cartagena DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 33 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann, 35 · Orlando City · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 60
Antoine Griezmann, 35, plays as a second striker for Orlando City in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and assists. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 60
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 51
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 91% |
| Assists | 0.41 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals | 0.88 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.50 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected goals | 0.43 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Provider, Clinical finisher.
⚠ 13 goals from only 6.4 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Antoine Griezmann is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antoine Griezmann's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City prediction
Chicago Fire should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.49 for Chicago Fire and 1.46 for Orlando City - with over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 71%. Chicago Fire have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chicago Fire 3-1 Orlando City
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City betting tips
- Tip 1: Chicago Fire to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 56% by the model, 3.95 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Chicago Fire vs Orlando City: questions and answers
When is Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Chicago Fire vs Orlando City played?
At Soldier Field, Chicago, Chicago Fire's home ground.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?
Chicago Fire are the favourites: Chicago Fire 60%, draw 19%, Orlando City 21%. Our prediction is Chicago Fire 3-1 Orlando City.
Who is the player to watch in Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?
Antoine Griezmann of Orlando City: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs Orlando City?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Tags
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