Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre · updated 2026-11-15
Auxerre welcome Olympique Marseille to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Auxerre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Auxerre have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Olympique Marseille have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Marseille are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 22% and Auxerre at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Auxerre 1.56, Olympique Marseille 2.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille: season averages side by side
| Auxerre | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 1.85 | xG conceded | 1.97 |
| 11.1 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.7 |
| 44.4 | Possession % | 55.8 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Auxerre
- Christ Makosso CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
- Romain Faivre AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 52 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 15% of his position)
Olympique Marseille
- Timothy Weah RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Nayef Aguerd CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Ball circulator, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: CJ Egan-Riley
CJ Egan-Riley, 23 · Olympique Marseille · CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65
CJ Egan-Riley, 23, plays as a centre-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in fouls committed and dribbled past. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls committed | 0.41 / 90 | 94% |
| Dribbled past | 0.20 / 90 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 81% |
| Clearances | 6.20 / 90 | 80% |
| Interceptions | 1.32 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Disciplined, Hard to dribble past, Secure passer.
- What CJ Egan-Riley is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open CJ Egan-Riley's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball, with Auxerre likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Auxerre like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.56 for Auxerre and 2.15 for Olympique Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 70%. Olympique Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Auxerre 1-3 Olympique Marseille
Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille: what the numbers say
- 1. Olympique Marseille unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 51% by the model, 3.71 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille: questions and answers
When is Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille?
Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille played?
At Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre, Auxerre's home ground.
Who will win Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille are the favourites: Auxerre 28%, draw 22%, Olympique Marseille 51%. Our prediction is Auxerre 1-3 Olympique Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille?
CJ Egan-Riley of Olympique Marseille: a ball-playing centre-back with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.