AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
AZ Alkmaar welcome Hapoel Beer Sheva to AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
AZ Alkmaar have played 1 match in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Hapoel Beer Sheva have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AZ Alkmaar -1.5 at 1.83, Hapoel Beer Sheva at 2.06. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Hapoel Beer Sheva: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.51 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: season averages side by side
| AZ Alkmaar | Per match | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.51 |
| 0.00 | Goals | 1.67 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 4.0 | Big chances missed | 0.3 |
| 10.0 | Tackles | 7.7 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 1 and 6 measured matches.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.34 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.03 for Hapoel Beer Sheva - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 48%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva betting tips
- Tip 1: AZ Alkmaar to win 71% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: questions and answers
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva played?
At AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar's home ground.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: AZ Alkmaar 71%, draw 17%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 12%. Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.