Lyon vs Crystal Palace Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lyon welcome Crystal Palace to Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Lyon have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Crystal Palace have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lyon 40%, the draw 28%, Crystal Palace 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lyon -0.25 at 1.93, Crystal Palace at 1.95. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.92, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Lyon: form and key numbers
In style Lyon play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Crystal Palace: form and key numbers
In style Crystal Palace are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 2.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Lyon vs Crystal Palace: season averages side by side
| Lyon | Per match | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| 1.08 | xG conceded | 2.25 |
| 1.83 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 52.3 | Pressure share % | 33.4 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 22.6 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Lyon
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Corentin Tolisso CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 56 · Creator, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
Crystal Palace
- Yéremy Pino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 10% of his position)
- Dean Henderson GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Ernest Nuamah, 22, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 61
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.53 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.33 / 90 | 81% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.14 / 90 | 75% |
| Big chances created | 0.48 / 90 | 69% |
| Fouls won | 1.90 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction
Lyon should have more of the ball, with Crystal Palace likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lyon go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.44 for Lyon and 0.88 for Crystal Palace - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lyon 1-1 Crystal Palace
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lyon vs Crystal Palace betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Lyon vs Crystal Palace: questions and answers
When is Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
Lyon vs Crystal Palace is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Lyon vs Crystal Palace played?
At Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu, Lyon's home ground.
Who will win Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
It is close: Lyon 40%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 32%. Our prediction is Lyon 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who is the player to watch in Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lyon vs Crystal Palace?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.